Assessing the macroeconomic effect of gas pipeline projects: the case of Trans-Adriatic Pipeline on Greece

Abstract

This paper presents a framework for analyzing in quantitative and monetary terms the macroeconomic effects associated with the construction and operation of large energy investments, including the impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment and public revenues, by sector of economic activity. The proposed framework has been implemented for analyzing the macroeconomic implications associated with the construction and operation of the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) project in Greece. To this end, the input–output methodological framework has been used for estimating the macroeconomic implications of the project under consideration in conjunction with the adjusted earnings gain approach for monetizing the resulting employment effects. The results of the analysis clearly show that the construction activities will create significant direct, indirect and induced benefits to the Greek economy, growing the GDP by €931 million, creating employment benefits amounted to €197 million and contributing €359 million to the treasury. Furthermore, it was estimated that ongoing operation of the pipeline could increase the national GDP at about €17 million, the employment benefits of about €4.7 million and the tax revenues of approximately €6.8 million, on an annual basis and for a period of 50 years.
JEL classification: D57, M14
Keywords: macroeconomic effects; input-output analysis; social return on investment; employment benefits; gas pipelines.